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[科技] 厲害了我的國: 中國「新四大發明」一推就倒!

本主題由 后太禧慈 於 2018-8-17 18:29 設置高亮
內地芯片九成進口去年涉兩萬億元
https://hk.news.appledaily.com/local/daily/article/20180427/20374345?_ga=2.254030282.337993625.1524824178-1860100900.1524824178

芯片被內地媒體稱為「國之重器」,是現代工業最重要部件,但目前中國使用芯片九成需要進口,國產率在高端芯片方面更幾乎空白。去年中國進口芯片3,770億塊,金額達2,601億美元(約2.03萬億港元),是最大宗進口商品。

專家:20年內無法追美
根據清華大學微電子學研究所長魏少軍的《2017年中國集成電路產業現狀分析》報告,中國在多個電子行業的核心部件,芯片國產率均為零,包括伺服器、記憶體DRAM、快閃記憶體NAND Flash、數字信號處理器、手機的嵌入式處理器、用於通訊網絡管理的FPGA等。
芯片是人類最複雜的工業產品,涉及約5,000道工序。中國並非無法製造芯片,而是產品競爭力無法與歐美匹敵,背後是整個科技和工業體制的較量。芯片功能由積體電路的導線寬度決定,線越窄電阻越低,速度就越快。目前中國芯片製造最先進為中芯國際(981),其線寬為28納米,較三星10納米相差兩個世代。
除生產工藝落後他人外,芯片設計須使用一種名為EDA的軟件,該範疇目前為美國Synopsys、Cadence壟斷,中國至今無法踏足該行業。在中興通訊被頒禁令後,該些美國公司已立即中斷服務,無法使用設計軟件。另外,芯片必須使用固定的制式架構,否則無法互相兼容,該範疇為美國Intel、英國ARM壟斷,中國必須支付版權,並在自行研發時面臨重多專利障礙。
芯片生產必須使用高端光刻機,全球只有荷蘭ASML公司可提供。ASML優先向其股東三星、台積電、Intel供貨,並可隨時禁運。內地業界反映,中國定貨至少要較上述公司遲3年。
近年中國在芯片行業謀求破局,包括成立自己的芯片設計體系,成立過千億元的產業基金,但成效甚微;在海外收購多家芯片設計公司則被美國否決。中環資產投資總監譚新強認為,中國芯片在20年內無法追上美國,而美國近期動作是策略性部署,意圖壓制中國科技行業發展,已經超出貿易戰範疇。

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國營火箭發動機研製機構有員工被挖角 促法庭仲裁留人
http://news.tvb.com/greaterchina/5bae1831e603834d4f4306a0/

打工仔搵工跳槽是平常事,不過如果一個員工離開會影響國家大計,便非同少可。

中國派太空人登月未有具體時間表,內地傳媒曾引述航天專家稱,會在2030年或之後的事。一間國營火箭發動機研製所,有員工被民營火箭公司挖角,要求法庭仲裁留人,聲稱會影響中國載人登月計劃。事件鬧大後,研究所承認措辭誇張失實。《人民日報》則要求國家機構反思如何留住人才。

中國民營火箭企業「藍箭航天」研發的國產首枚商用運載火箭「朱雀一號」,上月在西安組裝完畢,預計下月發射,把央視定制的微小衛星帶到太空。公司今年三月向中國航天科技集團轄下的西安航天動力研究所挖角,成為輿論焦點。

有內地傳媒報道,發動機研究員張小平,原本於西安航天動力研究所擔任副主任設計師,年薪約十二萬元人民幣,「跳槽」至藍箭航天,年薪急升至一百萬元。

西安航天動力研究所多次挽留但不成功,於是向仲裁庭申請留人。提交的文件提到,張小平掌握研製相關發動機最關鍵的技術,是項目的靈魂人物,他的離職令研製過程出現深層次技術難題,影響中國重型運載火箭的方案選擇和研製進度,甚至會影響中國載人登月計劃。

文件於網上曝光後,輿論驚訝一個科研人員竟然可以影響整個登月計劃。

研究所其後回應指,張小平是國家重要涉密人員,按規定,離職前須在內部「脫密」兩年,但他自行離開,所以研究所才向仲裁庭申請要求他回來,又承認措辭失當,誇大了張小平的地位和作用,對造成公眾誤解致歉。研究所又稱,他們仍有較多優秀骨幹,張小平被挖走不會產生太大影響。

《人民日報》評論指,人才流向民企,同樣可以推動中國航天業發展,而人才向上流動是市場規律,認為國家機構要完善人才管理及激勵機制,才能留得住人。
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華為前員工拒竊商業機密被炒 在美入稟索償8億
http://hk.on.cc/cn/bkn/cnt/news/20180715/bkncn-20180715181033644-0715_05011_001.html

華為一名前員工早前入稟美國法院,指控在拒絕為公司竊取商業機密後,今年3月被解僱,遂要求華為賠償1.05億美元(約8.2億港元)。華為於周日(15日)回應指,事件全屬造謠,強調會積極應訴。

美國傳媒報道,原告人Jesse Hong從2014年起擔任華為聖克拉拉的子公司「華為技術有限公司」(Futurewei Technologies)的軟件工程師。他指控華為於2016年指使他與兩名員工以美國公司名義,混入Facebook主辦的「TIP峰會」,後來被他拒絕。另外兩名員工則成功參加會議,再將有關內容製成報告,其中包括競爭對手的計劃,隨後再轉交給華為在中國的團隊。

華為回應稱,該名前員工的指控沒有事實根據,公司將積極應訊,維護公司權益,強調遵紀守法是華為全球化合規運營的基石。

美媒:華安裝間諜晶片竊密 蘋果亞馬遜均中招
http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/amenews/20181004/bkn-20181004190837576-1004_00972_001.html

據報近30美企遭華黑客攻擊 中國指堅定捍衛網絡安全
http://news.tvb.com/world/5bb62f27e60383cb5ce78888/

China reportedly used chips to spy on US tech companies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8QHa3HC3gI




[ 本帖最後由 路過 於 2018-10-4 14:58 編輯 ]
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全球經貿戰:傳美正考慮禁中國留學生簽證攻讀科學
http://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/finance/20181002/bkn-20181002193520143-1002_00842_001.html?eventid=4028834763f1f81701646d79e31127a2&eventsection=hk_finance

外國傳媒引述消息人士報道,美國總統特朗普政府正在辯論禁止中國籍留學生赴美國的大學學生簽證,以避免偷竊科研技術。

據悉,這是由現任美國駐華大使布蘭斯塔德(Terry Branstad)主動提出,得到白宮資深顧問米勒(Stephen Miller)支持。

消息正正在中美於南海發生軍事衝突之時出現。該策略主要針對赴美攻讀科學領域,涉及到國家安全的範疇。

事實上,美國聯邦調查局局長Christopher Wray早於今年2月已形容中國是美國最大及最需要關注的威脅。當時他說:「我認為,從反間諜角度來看,中國在很多方面都是美國最廣泛、最具挑戰性、最重要的威脅。這包括經濟間諜及傳統間諜活動,當中動員了不少人力及網絡,是美國不能低估的...中國是有意要超越美國。」

數據顯示,2015至2016年度於美國的大學留學的中國學生多達32.9萬人左右。
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北大教授直言「中國無創新」 21世紀成不了超級強權
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/2452875

中國在科技、資訊領域快速進步,令目前處於全球領導地位的美國備感壓力,但一名北京大學外籍教授直言,美國不需要過度擔心中國的崛起,因為中國缺乏創新能力。

北京大學光華管理學院金融教授佩帝斯(Michael Pettis)接受《彭博社》專訪時呼籲美國總統川普,可以不用對中國高科技產業大動干戈,因為中國缺乏創新環境,且面臨多項挑戰,難以取代美國地位。佩帝斯指出,這些問題包括大幅上升的債務、急速老化的社會導致勞力縮減、收入差異極大化以及因為長期受到管控而缺乏創新的環境。

佩帝斯認為,美國對中國的恐懼到了偏執的地步,「我告訴我在華盛頓的朋友們,是的,壓力逐漸在增加,但中國不如你們所想的那麼恐怖,中國在21世紀不會成為主宰世界的超級強權。」

佩帝斯舉例,即便他身在全中國最優秀的北京大學裡,與學生的互動中仍產生不少問題,「他們是中國最聰明的孩子,但仍沒辦法讓他們脫離死背硬記的學習模式,他們認為只要在更努力學習一些,就能夠獲得成功,我則和他們說,學習少一些,思考多一些,但這非常困難,他們沒有這樣的文化。」


U.S. Should Chill Out About High-Tech China Threat, Pettis Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-06/america-should-chill-out-about-the-high-tech-china-threat
Michael Pettis says China can’t innovate, isn’t a threat
China faces ‘terrible adjustment’: Peking University Professor

President Donald Trump should relax about China’s plan to dominate the high-tech industries of the future.

That’s the view of Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University in Beijing. The world’s second biggest economy won’t steal America’s lunch because it lacks the ability to innovate and has challenges so daunting that the real issue in coming years will be holding itself together, he said in an interview.

Those problems are a huge and rising debt burden; ugly demographics, with a rapidly aging society leading to a shrinking workforce; huge income disparities; and a chronic lack of innovation due to its rigid, controlled society, says Pettis, the former head of emerging markets at Bear Stearns Cos.

"The fear of China is a form of paranoia," he said . "I tell my friends in Washington: ‘Yes, step up the pressure a bit but China is not the great existential threat that you think it is.’ China’s not going to become the dominant superpower of the 21st century."

Pettis estimates China’s share of global output will shrink to 10 percent and perhaps lower in 20 years from about 15 percent now, as the burden of its rising debt drags on growth. Expansion is extremely unlikely to be more than 3 percent annually now and is overstated in official data, he says.

To make matters worse, Pettis believes that globalization of the world economy, which helped propel China’s turbo-charged expansion in recent decades, is over.

Here are excerpts from a recent interview:

Should the U.S. fear China’s plan to dominate future industries?
This is not a country we can expect major innovations from. In the west we don’t have enough confidence about this. How many governments in the world have decided they’re going to become major innovation centers? None of them have succeeded.

It’s really hard to figure out how to get a culture of innovation and I suspect it doesn’t have to do with political will. The types of reforms you need to become a great innovation center are pretty scary for a country like China. If you’re running things in Beijing, do you really want to have that kind of country?

I have this problem with my students all the time. These are the smartest kids in China and I cannot get them to depart from the beaten track of rote learning. They think if they just study a little harder they can do it. I tell them, "No, study less, think more." It’s really, really hard. There isn’t that culture here.

Why do you believe globalization is over?
The way we have generated growth is by lowering wages. That’s what everybody is doing. But the problem is that this cuts overall demand because wages drive consumption, and lower wages means lower demand.

Every country has the same policy: reduce your contribution to global demand and get a bigger share of what’s left, which is basically beggar thy neighbor. We’re all doing it. Either things get worse and worse and worse or we have a new Bretton Woods where we all agree to stop cheating, which is very unlikely, or we all start imposing tariffs and more importantly, restrictions on capital flows.

So what’s the outlook for China’s economy?
If you look at China and other countries that followed similar models, the main difference is that the imbalances in China are greater than we’ve ever seen before - debt is higher than we’ve ever seen before, and the growth in that debt is the fastest we’ve ever seen.

Look at the historical track record: for every country that has had an investment growth miracle, during the adjustment period that followed, their share of global output declined significantly. Japan is the classic example. At its peak in the early ’90s it was 17 percent of the world. Today it’s around 6 or 7 percent.

If China really starts addressing its problems in the next year or two it’s still going to have a terrible adjustment. Right now China’s 15 percent of world output. Twenty years from now if China is 15 percent of the world that would be pretty impressive. I think they’ll be down to 10 percent or maybe even lower.

The problems that it has are so severe that the real issue for China is if it can hold itself together once growth rates start to slow dramatically.

— With assistance by Kevin Hamlin

Chinese debt and macroeconomic reforms with Michael Pettis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lcEaKqSijc


Michael Pettis on China's Deleveraging
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_XJ-7vbp4s


The US-China relationship and the roles of both super-powers according to Michael Pettis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6Isolsxw_Y


Boom or Bust for China’s Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utPr3KEKj-w


“The future of China’s economy" by Bert Hofman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH06AThJ5ow


China’s GDP Does Not Reflect the State of Its Economy I Fortune
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R6ucY9Xc1I
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