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[財經分析] 學者談中國GDP第二:産業結構落後日本40年

汗思吉成

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羅覺愛新

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火車未到站

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全球產值冀增15萬億
http://the-sun.on.cc/cnt/finance/20140224/00434_033.html

二十國集團(G20)於澳洲悉尼召開的財金官員會議閉幕,各國為經濟增長制訂量化目標,冀五年內全球經濟增長累計加快超過2個百分點,相當於向經濟注入逾2萬億美元(約15.6萬億港元)。但與會的中國財政部長樓繼偉表明,不應再依靠中國貢獻全球一半增長,另稱歡迎美國退市,中國將不受影響。
一連兩日的會議「東道主」澳洲國庫部長霍基表示,今次是G20首次為經濟增長設定量化目標,至於達標策略將在今年底G20召開峰會時再從長計議。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)表示樂見G20制訂目標,意味着全球經濟增長將由明年開始,每年加快0.5個百分點。

印度抱怨美國退市
不過,G20以往嘗試提振經濟增長不果,故投資者未敢再寄予厚望。

會後聲明顯示,G20財金官員坦言目前全球經濟仍遠未實現強勁、可持續且均衡的增長,他們認同IMF,建議發達國家維持寬鬆的貨幣政策,同時呼籲新興國家致力紓緩通脹,並透過經濟結構性改革提升競爭力。

新興國家繼續表達對美國退市的不滿,印度央行行長拉贊接受訪問時抱怨新興國家被孤立,面對龐大經常帳赤字問題,卻沒有其他國家願意伸出援手。

拉贊又稱,會議期間曾與聯儲局主席耶倫會談,但對方似乎不理解退市對新興市場所造成的震盪。

人幣近期跌非貶值
至於中國,樓繼偉表示,外界對中國的期望甚大,冀繼續發揮引擎作用,然而像○九、一○年般,中國貢獻全球增長50%的情況已一去不返,目前貢獻比率降至接近30%,基於氣候條件、大氣污染、產能過剩等不利因素,相關比率可能進一步下降。

同場的人行行長周小川透過央行網站表示,增速7至8%不僅適合中國,亦有利促進全球增長,另強調正針對「影子銀行」實行有效監管。

至於人民幣,樓繼偉稱近期跌勢仍屬正常區間之內,故不能判斷為貶值,跌勢並非反映基本因素正在轉變。

此外,G20同意計劃明年底前,各國稅務部門落實自動互享資料,加強打擊企業避稅。
Friedrich Engels 弗裏德裏希·恩格斯
中國不適合民主, 所以解散中華人民共和國很合理!
http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=8461

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上任首份工作報告 破20年傳統
李克強避提GDP指標
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20140305/18646107
Friedrich Engels 弗裏德裏希·恩格斯
中國不適合民主, 所以解散中華人民共和國很合理!
http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=8461

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中國究竟有多富?人均收入不如秘魯
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20140502002435-260410

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日立技术部长:不愿买中国车 品质差距大
http://www.njdaily.cn/2014/0423/817900.shtml

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李光耀:即使中國GDP超過美國 也無法恢復漢朝時地位
http://finance.ifeng.com/news/pic/detail_2011_03/11/5101684_0.shtml#locate

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China Quietly Releases 2017 Provincial GDP Figures
https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/02/12/china-quietly-releases-2017-provincial-gdp-figures/#3460117520dc

China's National Bureau of Statistics quietly released provincial GDP figures on Monday. Quietly, because the data don't quite add up. As in previous years, the national growth rate calculated by adding up all of the provincial figures -- 8.1% -- is higher than the actually reported national growth rate of 6.9%.

That longstanding problem may be on the way out. China's provinces have been told to quit chasing inflated targets, and several have in fact reduced their growth targets for 2018. Publicly acknowledged fabrications of GDP statistics in Inner Mongolia and Tianjin seem to have been reflected in their 2017 statistics.

Like a company writing down past accounting irregularities, Inner Mongolia posted a 15.7% decline in GDP last year. Tianjin, a booming advanced manufacturing hub, reported growth of just 1.4%, presumably to adjust for prior years' misreporting. It will be interesting to see if both provinces return to normal in 2018.



The rest of the country's figures seem broadly reasonable. Though China's provincial growth figures may be somewhat inflated, and some of them are seriously unreliable, most of them probably do reflect genuine differences in growth rates across regions. Take off a point or two across the board, but it still makes sense to compare provinces against each other.

Two provinces reported growth rates in excess of 12%: northern China's Shanxi province and southwest China's Guangxi province. Both are among China's poorest and most rural provinces, and both desperately need the growth. Even after posting those impressive figures, they are still hovering at around $6,500 GDP per capita.

Eleven other provinces reported growth rates above 10%, including most of China's rich eastern coastal provinces. China's largest province, southeastern Guangdong, reported 10.2% growth to bring its GDP per capita to nearly $13,000. That's still far below the level of neighboring Hong Kong ($44,000), but parts of Guangdong are catching up fast.



However the poor Dongbei region, northeast of Beijing on the border with Russia and North Korea, is falling further behind. While the so-called Jing-Jin-Ji region surrounding the nation's capital surges ahead, the neighboring heavy industrial provinces of the Dongbei continue to struggle with difficult industrial restructuring.

The Dongbei's difficulties reflect the most striking thing about China's provincial GDP map: the huge gap between the eastern coastal provinces and the rest of the country. Shanghai and Beijing, with around $20,000 per capita GDP, are starting to approach the levels of neighbors like Taiwan ($24,000) and South Korea ($30,000).

Per capita output in the Dongbei is less than half that level. North China (Huabei) and northwest China (Xibei) are doing even worse. Rural Gansu province in the heart of the Xibei has a GDP per capita less then one-fifth that of Beijing. And with an annual growth rate of less than 5%, it won't be catching up anytime soon.



China's massive regional disparities -- more than twice as large as those between U.S. states -- call out for central government policies to address them. In some ways China is working hard to knit the country more closely together, for example with its world-class high speed rail network. In other ways, China's rich eastern cities are pulling up the ladder behind them, as they declare themselves "full" and tell rural migrants to move elsewhere.

As GDP growth slows throughout China, it will become more and more difficult for people to enjoy President Xi Jinping's Chinese dream of a "moderately prosperous society." Many of those lucky enough to hold legal residency in China's eastern provinces are already living the Chinese dream, or soon will be. Those unlucky (hundreds of) millions who live in the north and west may have much longer to wait.
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