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[美國財經] US Market

Bloomberg - Roubini: Crisis Is `Not Over' in Global Economy http://bloom.bg/1Jdwr1D
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TheStreet: 7 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars: Facebook, American Airlines and More. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwjIyksiA
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Why Robert Shiller is calling this U.S. stock market ‘a great enigma’



http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... a-2015-04-02?page=1
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HSBC:衰退若再臨 全球央行已無救生圈

【簡體版】 【字號】大  中  小

【大紀元2015年05月14日訊】(大紀元記者張東光編譯報導)由於金融風暴至今已超過六年,但全球利率仍停留在超低水平,匯豐銀行(HSBC)在題為「全球經濟如同沒有救生圈的遠洋郵輪」的最新報告中警告,如果全球經濟再度陷入危機,各國央行恐將難以善了。

匯豐銀行首席經濟師簡世勳(Stephen King)在報告中寫道,如果另一場衰退來臨,各國政策制定者可能很難脫身,由於金融危機已過去六年,下一場危機可能不久即將來臨,但傳統的「政策彈藥」卻蕩然無存。

簡世勳認為,各國政策制定者過去的復甦中都能透過升息的方式「補充彈藥」,但這次的復甦卻無力升息,這將成為一大問題。他舉例說,自1970年代以來的各次衰退中,美國的聯邦利率都會下降至少5個百分點。但此一傳統刺激手段現在已被完全排除。與此同時,美國赤字預算仍然龐大,整體的財政結構依然脆弱。

這個現象不僅出現在美國,連歐元區、日本、英國都出現利率水準太低,且財政刺激選項比前幾次危機前還少的窘境。他們現在所能做的是:降低衰退風險、推出量化寬鬆(QE)、剔除通脹目標、以財政政策取代貨幣政策。

在降低衰退風險上,各國提高了銀行的資本,要求銀行具備更多的流動準備,進行更多的壓力測試,採取審慎的宏觀政策等,防止全球金融危機重演。但簡世勳認為,由於下次危機會以何種形式出現都還未知,這些措施可能無法防堵危機的發生。

至於推動量化寬鬆方面,簡世勳認為這是在重蹈日本2001年的覆轍,他很懷疑該政策長期的有效性,只會讓升息脫離零利率更加困難。

就通脹目標而言,簡世勳說FED現在已很難根據通脹目標制定政策了。理論上,通脹目標是一個精確、透明且可預測的指標。但如果央行僅關注通脹,而不理會資產泡沫,那麼全球金融危機可能開始醞釀。

至於財政政策,簡世勳認為最大的問題在於政策的彈性,這取決於各國政府能容忍財政赤字和國債拉高到甚麼水平。由於全球目前債務水平已高,利率又接近於零,預算赤字金額又過於龐大,各國政府推動刺激政策的空間已越來越少。

他還說,量化寬鬆確實推升資產價格,但到目前為止並未實質幫助經濟增長和通脹,反而讓物價陷入通縮疑雲。但若採取「直升機撒錢」(helicopter money)的印鈔救市方式,匯率必然大貶,類似津巴布韋的超級通脹將全面來襲。

對於此時全球陷入低利率的窘境,簡世勳指稱這不僅是央行政策的結果,還涉及到由於全球人口老化,不斷增加的銀髮族為了未雨綢繆而「事前儲蓄過剩」(ex-ante excess of savings)的問題。他坦承,要打破此一惡性循環,最簡單的方法是延後退休年齡,從而降低銀髮族的過剩儲蓄問題。

責任編輯:王樺

2015-05-14 19:48:30

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李嘉誠再拋旗下資產 套現76億港元

【大紀元2015年06月10日訊】(大紀元記者劉毅報導)6月9日,香港電能實業發布公告稱,以每股作價5.26港元,總計約76.8億港元(約61.4億人民幣)的價格,向卡塔爾投資局旗下全資子公司Qatar Holding LLC出售港燈16.53%的股權。據悉,李嘉誠家族通過電能實業和長江基建共擁有港燈53.36%的股權,為該公司第一大股東。
據大陸澎湃新聞消息,這次電能實業向卡塔爾投資局旗下全資子公司Qatar Holding LLC,出售了港燈16.53%的股權。另據路透社報導,卡塔爾投資局一併向長江基建額外購入3.37%港燈的股權。電能實業2014年年報顯示,李嘉誠家族通過電能實業和長江基建共擁有港燈53.36%的股權,為該公司第一大股東。國家電網以20%的持股比例位列港燈第二大股東。本次交易後,卡塔爾投資局將以19.9%的持股比例成為港燈的第三大股東。
從2010年開始,李嘉誠持續拋售北京、上海等地的核心資產。尤其是從2013年開始,李嘉誠大筆拋售大陸資產。
2013年李嘉誠家族拋售大陸資產超200億元人民幣。
據《證券日報》消息,2014年1月至2015年4月,李嘉誠出售的位於中國大陸物業貨值總計約達129億元人民幣。
與此同時,李嘉誠也從香港套現了大筆資金。
2014年1月22日,同屬李嘉誠旗下的電能實業分拆港燈電力投資上市,集資約241億港元;3月份,李嘉誠轉而將屈臣氏股份近25%作價440億港元賣給新加坡主權基金淡馬錫;3月14日,和記黃埔旗下在新加坡的上市公司和記港口信託,減持亞洲貨櫃碼頭60%股權,套現最多24.72億港元。其次子李澤楷拋售香港電訊1.18億股,套現近11億港元等。
據《證券日報》稱,2014年至2015年4月,李嘉誠在港通過出售資產或者其它方式套現了761億港元。
李嘉誠及其長子李澤鉅近兩年在拋售大陸及香港資產的同時,持續擴展海外帝國版圖,自2010年以來,李嘉誠的長和系在香港和大陸以外完成了超過10筆的收購。而其中,收購項目位於歐洲的數量最多,在整個歐洲市場,長和系近幾年購買的資產包括基建、電訊、能源等,李嘉誠過去兩年在歐洲新注入資金達300億美元。
除了歐洲市場,李嘉誠在今年2月份斥資約7,485萬元人民幣,租下了澳大利亞新州Griffith及南澳東南部Coonawarra等地總計650公頃的葡萄園,租期15年。這也令李嘉誠成為澳大利亞本土持有葡萄園第二多的人。
有評論認為,和中共有著30多年政經關係,有著精準投資眼光的「超人」李嘉誠,從2013年至今,其家族一路拋售大陸和香港資產,轉戰歐洲重組企業帝國,遷冊至英國屬土開曼群島。李嘉誠身為亞洲財經界的風向標,一舉一動都受到商界的高度關注。對政治和投資一向敏銳的「李超人」飛速撤資,或許表明他對中國和香港投資環境和司法產生質疑,促使他「以腳投票」,撤離大陸和香港以免後患。
責任編輯:李曉清

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/15/6/10/n4454476p.htm

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An extended period of near-zero interest rates has made it cheaper for Standard & Poor's 500-stock index companies to issue cheap debt, which they have used to repurchase roughly $2 trillion of their own stock, on net. Reducing the amount of shares outstanding—the denominator in the earnings-per-share equation that is closely tracked by analysts and investors—has the effect of boosting the bottom- line results, assuming no change in the earnings numerator.
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美股孖展债務見顶回落(3 Apr 2016)2016-04-03 16:56阅读:325
紐约股票交易所孖展债務(Margin Debt)創新高後見顶回落,反映美股可能進入熊市。偶一不慎,投资者可能损失惨重。见附錄。

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免責聲明:以上分析,只供參考,投資買賣,必須審慎
附錄: This Indicator Suggests A Bear Market Is Now Underway And It’s Likely To Be A Painful One
https://www.thefelderreport.com/2016/03/31/this-indicator-suggests-a-bear-market-is-now-underway-and-its-likely-to-be-a-painful-one/
NYSE margin debt fell again during the month of February. After the selloff in stocks that kicked off 2016, this should come as no surprise. Investors are usually forced to reduce leveraged bets during these sorts of episodes in the stock market. In fact, this forced selling can actually exacerbate the volatility. And because margin debt is only now beginning to come down from record highs, surpassing those seen at the 2000 and 2007 peak, this should be of concern to most equity investors.
To fully appreciate this risk, I prefer to look at margin debt relative to overall economic activity. When leveraged financial speculation becomes large relative to the economy, it’s usually a sign investors have become far too greedy. As Warren Buffett would say, this is usually a good time to become more fearful, or conservative towards the stock market.
Not only did margin debt recently hit nominal record-highs, it hit new record-highs in relation to GDP, as well. In other words, over the past several decades, investors have never become so greedy as they did recently. And yes, this includes the dotcom bubble.

One reason I prefer this measure is that it has a fairly high negative correlation with forward 3-year returns in the stock market. When investors become too greedy, returns over the subsequent 3 years are poor and vice versa. As of the end of February, the latest forecast implied by this measure is for a loss of about 35% over the next three years.

While this measure is pretty good at forecasting 3-year returns that doesn’t help much for investors concerned with the next year or so. In this regard, it may be helpful to observe the trend of margin debt. Where is the nominal level of margin debt relative to its 12-month moving average or simply its level from one year ago? Historically, when these indicators turn negative from such lofty levels, a bear market, as defined by at least a 20% drawdown, is already underway. Right now both of these measure are, in fact, negative.


[url=]加载余下文章[/url]
NYSE margin debt fell again during the month of February. After the selloff in stocks that kicked off 2016, this should come as no surprise. Investors are usually forced to reduce leveraged bets during these sorts of episodes in the stock market. In fact, this forced selling can actually exacerbate the volatility. And because margin debt is only now beginning to come down from record highs, surpassing those seen at the 2000 and 2007 peak, this should be of concern to most equity investors.
To fully appreciate this risk, I prefer to look at margin debt relative to overall economic activity. When leveraged financial speculation becomes large relative to the economy, it’s usually a sign investors have become far too greedy. As Warren Buffett would say, this is usually a good time to become more fearful, or conservative towards the stock market.
Not only did margin debt recently hit nominal record-highs, it hit new record-highs in relation to GDP, as well. In other words, over the past several decades, investors have never become so greedy as they did recently. And yes, this includes the dotcom bubble.

One reason I prefer this measure is that it has a fairly high negative correlation with forward 3-year returns in the stock market. When investors become too greedy, returns over the subsequent 3 years are poor and vice versa. As of the end of February, the latest forecast implied by this measure is for a loss of about 35% over the next three years.

While this measure is pretty good at forecasting 3-year returns that doesn’t help much for investors concerned with the next year or so. In this regard, it may be helpful to observe the trend of margin debt. Where is the nominal level of margin debt relative to its 12-month moving average or simply its level from one year ago? Historically, when these indicators turn negative from such lofty levels, a bear market, as defined by at least a 20% drawdown, is already underway. Right now both of these measure are, in fact, negative.


So margin debt right now is sending a very clear signal that investors have recently become very greedy. This suggests returns over the next several years should be very poor. Finally, the trend in margin debt also suggests that a new bear market is likely underway. If history is to rhyme, that means a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 is very likely to occur sometime soon. And because of the sheer size of the potential forced supply that could come to market in this sort of environment, that could easily be just the beginning.



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Consumer Price Index, San Francisco Area — February 2016

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