Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
大陸發展一直靠香港. 但時間已經改變了, 中共消滅香港. replace HK?
#25
【大棋局】港元保衛戰前奏(Mr. Tregunter)
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/202006...YUSZ6GLTM/

講滙率,就算不懂經濟,用賭場比喻一講就明。去賭場要換籌碼,正路係與本地貨幣1兌1。如果有日賭場失驚無神同你講,要2籌碼先可兌1蚊走,其實即係搶你一半錢。賭場籌碼兌換率不會常變動,同理,金融中心的貨幣滙價通常比較穩定,貨幣大上大落之地難成為金融中心。

滙率相對穩定與完全穩定有差異,若要完全穩定,則須在資本自由流通與自主貨幣政策二者放棄其一,即三元悖論。香港作為金融中心要資本自由流通,滙率又完全穩定,所以放棄了自主貨幣政策,主要依隨美國。有如此選擇,除了因美元係世界貨幣定錨,全球通行,亦因為美國長期係香港最重要貿易夥伴。問題就在此,假如《國安法》出場令美國不再為香港最重要貿易夥伴,則香港依隨美國貨幣政策此一條件有所鬆動,其餘兩個條件會點樣就有變數。這就是血腥味。

一隻貨幣的官方滙價點設定隨你,問題在人哋信唔信你。好似90年代初,人民幣自定同美元兌換官價根本冇人理,黑市價先係真價。聯繫滙率能否維持,係市場依據時勢去估算滙率平價,而非官方宣佈話有就有。至於《香港關係法》關於港元與美元的陳述,首先要明白《香港關係法》係美國國內法,其不能限制香港的港元如何,但可以限制美國本土的美元如何。如果玩大,比如美國限制美國本土的美元和港元兌換,已可間接打擊港元地位,但去到這步已無轉圜餘地。

香港的問題維持早前看法,共產黨推《國安法》後的動作顯示,其一,香港短期要留,但要留的只是這個殼,內涵可以替換;其二,此一著是奇襲,估計在拉鋸過程中已經在準備下一次奇襲,務求令你周身唔得閒。美國亦唔係食齋,所以很有可能反其道而行。也就是共產黨要甚麼,美國就斷甚麼。因此港元乃至香港地位何如,將更視乎美國出手有幾重。

聯繫滙率1983年確立,距今37年,以致不少香港人覺得7.8港元兌1美元如定律,若非炒外滙或做出入口,對滙率敏感度偏低。內地人不同,內地人對被金銀圓券、蘇區幣、滙改玩謝歷史仍有感,滙率敏感度較高。要狙擊一隻貨幣首先要有貨,港滙偏強未必係好事。狙擊不一定要你脫鈎,也可以藉此睇你有冇枱底數。香港人安逸得太久,歷練才剛開始。
Reply


Messages In This Thread
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 11:49 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 11:52 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 11:56 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 11:59 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 12:02 PM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 12:06 PM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-26-2019, 12:06 PM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 05:11 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 05:12 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 05:12 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 05:12 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 06:28 AM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 12-31-2019, 12:34 PM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 01-04-2020, 08:23 PM
[No subject] - by 大冬瓜 - 01-07-2020, 05:25 PM
[No subject] - by Chan7 - 01-13-2020, 09:20 AM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 03-27-2020, 10:12 AM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 05-26-2020, 05:32 PM
[No subject] - by 無名氏叔叔 - 06-03-2020, 11:27 AM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-09-2020, 11:28 AM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-10-2020, 11:37 AM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-11-2020, 10:38 PM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-15-2020, 12:19 PM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-15-2020, 12:24 PM
[No subject] - by 金大班 - 06-16-2020, 04:06 AM
[No subject] - by 無名氏叔叔 - 07-06-2020, 12:18 PM
[No subject] - by 無名氏叔叔 - 07-07-2020, 12:14 PM
[No subject] - by 無名氏叔叔 - 07-09-2020, 05:25 PM
[No subject] - by 九龍超人 - 07-22-2020, 09:00 PM
[No subject] - by 九龍超人 - 07-22-2020, 10:14 PM
[No subject] - by 九龍超人 - 07-23-2020, 03:42 PM
[No subject] - by 九龍超人 - 08-04-2020, 08:01 PM
[No subject] - by 九龍超人 - 08-05-2020, 07:22 PM
[No subject] - by 大金龍 - 08-13-2020, 01:35 PM
[No subject] - by 大金龍 - 08-24-2020, 09:46 AM
[No subject] - by 大金龍 - 08-28-2020, 08:19 AM
[No subject] - by 我愛大波波 - 09-07-2020, 01:17 AM
[No subject] - by 我愛大波波 - 09-07-2020, 01:24 AM
[No subject] - by 我愛大波波 - 09-08-2020, 11:40 PM
[No subject] - by 我愛大波波 - 09-10-2020, 07:32 PM
[No subject] - by 反共匪 - 10-27-2020, 07:00 PM
[No subject] - by 反共匪 - 11-01-2020, 03:37 AM
[No subject] - by 香港人加油 - 11-07-2020, 05:54 PM
[No subject] - by 紫羅蘭 - 02-02-2021, 06:08 PM
[No subject] - by 跑10k - 03-04-2021, 06:38 PM
[No subject] - by 跑10k - 03-10-2021, 07:11 AM
[No subject] - by 跑10k - 03-11-2021, 08:11 PM
[No subject] - by 跑10k - 03-31-2021, 11:42 PM
[No subject] - by 6SL7 - 04-25-2021, 05:50 PM
[No subject] - by 6SL7 - 04-26-2021, 11:43 AM
[No subject] - by 6SL7 - 05-06-2021, 07:43 PM
[No subject] - by 6SN7 - 05-12-2021, 12:14 PM
[No subject] - by 5Y3 - 07-03-2021, 07:28 AM
[No subject] - by 5Y3 - 07-14-2021, 01:09 PM
[No subject] - by 5Y3 - 07-16-2021, 07:00 PM
[No subject] - by 李老公 - 07-29-2021, 01:52 PM
[No subject] - by 李老公 - 08-10-2021, 03:24 PM
[No subject] - by 李老公 - 08-12-2021, 05:23 PM
[No subject] - by 李老公 - 08-20-2021, 10:00 AM
[No subject] - by 藍寶石王子 - 09-03-2021, 02:15 PM
[No subject] - by 藍寶石王子 - 09-20-2021, 12:44 AM
[No subject] - by 藍寶石王子 - 09-20-2021, 09:34 AM
[No subject] - by 消失的老公 - 09-27-2021, 03:01 PM
[No subject] - by 消失的老公 - 10-09-2021, 01:31 PM
[No subject] - by 失踪的老公 - 10-23-2021, 05:44 PM
[No subject] - by 失蹤的老公 - 11-03-2021, 07:32 AM
[No subject] - by 失踪的老公 - 11-18-2021, 04:32 AM
[No subject] - by 6V6 - 03-17-2022, 07:34 PM
[No subject] - by 6V6 - 03-25-2022, 03:01 PM
[No subject] - by 6V6 - 04-03-2022, 06:36 PM
[No subject] - by 5AR4 - 04-14-2022, 03:43 PM
[No subject] - by May35 - 05-09-2022, 11:54 AM
[No subject] - by HKer - 06-27-2022, 12:21 PM
[No subject] - by HKer - 06-30-2022, 11:00 AM
[No subject] - by 愛新覺羅 - 10-01-2022, 11:36 AM
[No subject] - by QEpark - 10-27-2022, 07:47 PM
[No subject] - by 揸流攤 - 11-11-2022, 11:20 AM
[No subject] - by IamHK - 03-13-2023, 07:19 PM
[No subject] - by IamHK - 03-25-2023, 06:42 AM
[No subject] - by KowloonWalk - 04-29-2023, 10:32 PM
[No subject] - by 大咸濕 - 07-14-2023, 07:51 PM
[No subject] - by 大黃蜂 - 08-22-2023, 09:25 PM
[No subject] - by 大黃蜂 - 08-25-2023, 07:39 PM
[No subject] - by 大雪茄 - 09-22-2023, 06:26 PM

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 4 Guest(s)