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大陸發展一直靠香港. 但時間已經改變了, 中共消滅香港. replace HK?
#25
【大棋局】港元保衛戰前奏(Mr. Tregunter)
https://hk.appledaily.com/finance/202006...YUSZ6GLTM/

講滙率,就算不懂經濟,用賭場比喻一講就明。去賭場要換籌碼,正路係與本地貨幣1兌1。如果有日賭場失驚無神同你講,要2籌碼先可兌1蚊走,其實即係搶你一半錢。賭場籌碼兌換率不會常變動,同理,金融中心的貨幣滙價通常比較穩定,貨幣大上大落之地難成為金融中心。

滙率相對穩定與完全穩定有差異,若要完全穩定,則須在資本自由流通與自主貨幣政策二者放棄其一,即三元悖論。香港作為金融中心要資本自由流通,滙率又完全穩定,所以放棄了自主貨幣政策,主要依隨美國。有如此選擇,除了因美元係世界貨幣定錨,全球通行,亦因為美國長期係香港最重要貿易夥伴。問題就在此,假如《國安法》出場令美國不再為香港最重要貿易夥伴,則香港依隨美國貨幣政策此一條件有所鬆動,其餘兩個條件會點樣就有變數。這就是血腥味。

一隻貨幣的官方滙價點設定隨你,問題在人哋信唔信你。好似90年代初,人民幣自定同美元兌換官價根本冇人理,黑市價先係真價。聯繫滙率能否維持,係市場依據時勢去估算滙率平價,而非官方宣佈話有就有。至於《香港關係法》關於港元與美元的陳述,首先要明白《香港關係法》係美國國內法,其不能限制香港的港元如何,但可以限制美國本土的美元如何。如果玩大,比如美國限制美國本土的美元和港元兌換,已可間接打擊港元地位,但去到這步已無轉圜餘地。

香港的問題維持早前看法,共產黨推《國安法》後的動作顯示,其一,香港短期要留,但要留的只是這個殼,內涵可以替換;其二,此一著是奇襲,估計在拉鋸過程中已經在準備下一次奇襲,務求令你周身唔得閒。美國亦唔係食齋,所以很有可能反其道而行。也就是共產黨要甚麼,美國就斷甚麼。因此港元乃至香港地位何如,將更視乎美國出手有幾重。

聯繫滙率1983年確立,距今37年,以致不少香港人覺得7.8港元兌1美元如定律,若非炒外滙或做出入口,對滙率敏感度偏低。內地人不同,內地人對被金銀圓券、蘇區幣、滙改玩謝歷史仍有感,滙率敏感度較高。要狙擊一隻貨幣首先要有貨,港滙偏強未必係好事。狙擊不一定要你脫鈎,也可以藉此睇你有冇枱底數。香港人安逸得太久,歷練才剛開始。
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