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大陸發展一直靠香港. 但時間已經改變了, 中共消滅香港. replace HK?
#90
3因素指「香港玩完」 前「中概好友」羅奇批港股不濟
https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81%E...D%E6%BF%9F

香港股市近期表現疲弱,摩根士丹利前首席經濟學家羅奇(Stephen Roach,圖)在英國《金融時報》撰文,提及香港股市表現不濟,分析香港內部、內地經濟及中美因素三方面難以改善,直指「香港已玩完(Hong Kong is over)」。

指港股回歸至今表現幾全球最差
財政司長陳茂波日前在商台節目則引述在瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇期間,有歐美長線的投資基金及商界說正重新評估投資內地及香港,尤其內地股市及港股估值相對便宜「抵買」,只是要看準時機,陳茂波形容是「開始轉勢」。他相信,香港只要做好自己,「(國際投資者)佢有錢搵、見到個市係正面,佢自自然然會返來」。

本報向政府查詢,日後《基本法》23條立法後,發表或轉載類似「香港玩完」的文章會否犯法,尤其是煽動意圖罪,政府發言人說不評論個別例子,但說草擬方案時會精準針對危害國安行為及犯罪元素;至於某項行為、文字或刊物是否具煽動意圖,需按所有相關情况和背景考慮。

現任耶魯大學資深研究員羅奇在《金融時報》以It pains me to say Hong Kong is over為題撰文,分析香港股市回歸25年後走勢幾乎是全球最差之一,相比1997年回歸時,恒指僅升約5%,但期內美國標普上升幾乎4倍,香港升幅也不及上海股市。

本地政治 中國經濟 中美關係
指港命運繫3因素 均難處理
羅奇分析,香港的命運因本地政治、中國經濟因素及中美關係三大因素組成,三者也難以處理。當中,他歸咎港府在2019年推動《逃犯條例》修訂、引發北京實施《港區國安法》,削弱香港自治,同時內地經濟面對房地產市場和地方政府財政等結構性問題;而香港受制美國外交政策,香港在亞洲區內盟友被迫在中美之間選邊站。

他形容,香港沒有政治迴旋空間去選擇自己該走的路,更難有解決方法逆轉中美摩擦。至於有意見認為壞消息已反映在港股折讓上,而內地政府刺激措施更可能短暫反彈,羅奇說除了內地官方一再推出逆周期措施外,抱懷疑態度的投資者,想看北京有更多行動(need to see more from Beijing),「否則香港可能只是深陷中國製造的陷阱中」。

曾是中國概念「大好友」的羅奇近年對中國意識形態及香港採取較批判角度,他於去年12月網誌中也自言過去長期是中國的樂觀者,現時採取審慎態度。

前投行中概「大好友」羅奇:香港玩完
https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF...9%E5%AE%8C

曾是中國概念「大好友」的摩根士丹利前首席經濟學家羅奇(Stephen Roach)撰文,指香港過往的定位非常聰明,成為世界最大發展奇蹟,但在香港本土政治丶中國經濟和中美關係等因素夾擊下,「香港已經玩完」(Hong Kong is over),中國已推出的救市措施亦難以把深陷中國泥淖中的香港拉出來。

現任耶魯大學資深研究員羅奇昨(12日)在英國《金融時報》以《我痛苦地說:香港已經玩完》(It pains me to say Hong Kong is over)為題撰文,指股市是香港成功的象徵,以一個莞爾小城丶卻擁有全球第四大(根據彭博數據,現降至第五大)上市公司市值,但回歸二十五年來,香港股市走勢幾乎是全球主要股票市場中,成績最差的地區,相比1997年回歸時,恆生指數只是上升約5%,升幅連上海股市也不如,而期內,美國標普期更是上升近4倍。

他認為,香港的死亡由本地政治丶中國經濟因素及中美關係三大因素造成。本地政治方面,香港回歸頭二十年相對平穩,中國只是擔當一個被動的「老大哥」的角色,但這卻因時任特首林鄭月娥在2019年推動《逃犯條例》的修訂工作而改變,修訂觸發大規模的民主運動,亦令北京在港強推《港區國安法》,撕掉香港僅餘的自治。恆指亦由當年的接近三萬點大跌45%至現時的15750點水平,他形容,費利民喜愛的自由市場被專制束縛住。

與此同時,中國經濟面對地方債務丶通縮及人口等結構性問題,加上防疫措施,終令房地產市場和地方財政難以負荷,股市大跌。

最後是中美關係緊張,香港遭受池魚之殃。另在美國外交政策下,香港的亞洲盟友被迫在中美之間選邊站,外貿亦因而受影響。羅奇明白,這並非香港可以處理的,因為香港沒有政治迴旋空間去選擇走自己的路。

他又說,中國經濟情況雖有輕微改善,但相信都是短暫的,而中美關係緊張亦難以改變,故此,即使有人認為,壞消息已反映在港股折讓上,而中國政府的刺激措施更可能短暫反彈,但抱持懷疑態度的投資者在中國需要一再推出逆周期措施,而事態沒多大轉變,相信除非北京有更多行動,否則香港可能只會繼續深陷中國的泥淖中。

曾是中國概念「大好友」的羅奇,在金融海嘯時期曾任港府的經濟機遇委員會成員。反修例運動後,他前年表示,因應中港的巨大變化,他不會再踏足香港,其後又指自己已由一個對中國感到樂觀的人,變得態度審慎。

It pains me to say Hong Kong is over
https://www.ft.com/content/27a2c28e-d28b...16ed32c675

The stock market is likely to remain in the mire until we see convincing economic measures from Beijing

The writer is a faculty member at Yale, formerly chair of Morgan Stanley Asia, and is the author of “Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives” 

There is more to economic vitality than the stock market. But for Hong Kong, the market has always been emblematic of success. Imagine, a small city state with what had long been the world’s fourth largest exchange (it is now fifth, according to Bloomberg data), a global leader of new stock offerings as recently as 2019.

It pains me to admit it, but Hong Kong is now over. A city I once called home and have cherished as a bastion of dynamism has had the world’s worst-performing major stock market over the past quarter of a century. Since the handover to China in 1997, the Hang Seng index has been basically flat, up only about 5 per cent. Over that same period, the S&P 500 has surged more than fourfold; even mainland China’s underperforming Shanghai Composite has far outdistanced the Hong Kong bourse.

Hong Kong’s demise reflects the confluence of three factors. First, domestic politics. For the first 20 years after the handover, its political scene was relatively stable. China was a passive Big Brother. The wheels came off in 2019-20 when, under Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong leadership made the mistake of proposing an extradition arrangement with China that sparked massive pro-democracy demonstrations. China’s response, clamping down through the imposition of a new Beijing-centric national security law, shredded any remaining semblance of local political autonomy. The 50-year transition period to full takeover by the People’s Republic of China had been effectively cut in half.

In the spring of 2019 at the onset of the democracy protests, the Hang Seng index was trading at nearly 30,000. It is now more than 45 per cent below that level at 15,750. Milton Friedman’s favourite free market has been shackled by the deadweight of autocracy.

Second, the China factor. The Hong Kong stock market has long been considered as a levered play on mainland China. For a variety of reasons, the Chinese economy has hit a wall. Structural problems — especially the dreaded three Ds — debt, deflation and demography — have combined with the impact of the Covid pandemic as well as cyclical pressures in the property market and local government financing vehicles. These forces have sparked a three-year bear market that has taken China’s broad CSI 300 index down more than 40 per cent from its spring 2021 peak. Reflecting collateral damage on Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong and the city’s China-sensitive services sector, the Hang Seng has fallen 49 per cent over the same period.

Third, global developments. Since 2018, the US-China rivalry has gone from bad to worse. Hong Kong has been trapped in the crossfire. Moreover, America’s “friendshoring” campaign has put pressure on Hong Kong’s Asian allies to pick sides between the US and China. This has driven a wedge between Hong Kong and many of its largest Asian trading partners. Outsize consequences are likely, especially since Hong Kong’s foreign trade totals 192 per cent of its gross domestic product.

There is no easy way out for Hong Kong from the interplay between these three developments. Hong Kong has no political discretion to chart its own course. While the Chinese economic factor might improve, I suspect any rebound is likely to be shortlived in light of lasting headwinds from a shrinking workforce and worrisome productivity prospects. Nor do I see an easy path to the resolution of US-China tensions that would prompt a reversal of the friendshoring trend.

The contrarian would argue, of course, that all this bad news is already discounted in an oversold Hong Kong stock market. China’s recent moves — a raft of government stimulus actions, jawboning, and replacement of the chief securities regulator — might trigger a temporary bounce. However, sceptical investors need to see more from Beijing than just another page from its timeworn countercyclical playbook. Until that happens, Hong Kong is likely to be mired in a trap made in China.

I will never forget my first trip to Hong Kong in the late 1980s. Notwithstanding a frightening, steep landing at the old Kai Tak airport, I was immediately taken with the extraordinary energy of the business community. Back then, Hongkongers had both a vision and a strategy. China was just beginning to stir, and Hong Kong was perfectly positioned as the major beneficiary of what turned into the world’s greatest development miracle. It all worked out brilliantly, for longer than anyone expected. And now it’s over.

中國好朋友跳船!華爾街大老羅奇悲嘆香港game over
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4577798

摩根士丹利前亞洲區主席、現任耶魯大學教授羅奇(Stephen Roach)長期被視為中國好朋友,也是鼓吹投資中國的華爾街代言人。這幾年除了坦言誤判習近平外,近日也撰文剖析香港的處境,直言北京鎮壓反送中運動及經濟低迷,外加美中關係惡化,讓香港陷入水火之中,香港本來可以成為中國經濟成長的受益者,如今,這一切都結束了。

耶魯大學教授羅奇在《金融時報》撰文稱,對香港來說,股市一直是成功的象徵,一個小城市擁有世界第4大交易所(根據彭博數據,目前排名第5),並且在 2019 年新股發行方面仍處於全球領先地位。不過,現在必須很遺憾地承認,香港已經殞落了。

這座曾被羅奇視為家、活力洋溢的城市,在過去4分之1個世紀裡,淪落成全世界表現最差的主要股市之一。羅奇指出,香港自1997年移交給中國以來,恆生指數僅上漲約5%。同期間,標普 500 指數飆升4倍多,就連中國表現不佳的上證指數也遠超港股。

羅奇分析造成香港殞落的3大因素,首先是林鄭月娥提出備受爭議的《逃犯條例》(送中條例),引發大規模民主示威活動。而北京的鎮壓行動及實施港版國安法,剝奪了香港自治權。

2019 年春天,香港民主抗議活動開始時,恆生指數接近3萬點,現在則跌至1萬5750點附近,跌幅高達 45% 以上。

第二個因素是中國。中國經濟陷入困境,債務、通縮和人口等結構問題,疊加疫情以及房地產市場和地方政府債務問題,這些利空引發長達三年的熊市,導致中國滬深 300 指數較 2021 年的峰值下跌40% 以上;同期間,恆生指數下跌49%,反映在港上市中國企業以及香港服務業所受到的附帶損害。

第三個原因則是全球發展。自2018年以來,美中競爭愈演愈烈,香港深陷水火之中,而美國「友岸外包」政策,令香港的亞洲盟友必須在美中之間選邊站,導致香港與其最大亞洲貿易夥伴產生隔閡。

羅奇認為,儘管中國經濟因素可能改善,惟勞動力萎縮和令人擔憂的生產力前景帶來的阻力,任何反彈恐怕都是短暫的。而且迄今也沒看到解決美中緊張局勢、扭轉友岸外包趨勢的捷徑。因此,香港並沒有簡單方法擺脫前述三大問題,主要是香港缺乏政治裁量權來制定自己的路線。

羅奇回憶,20 世紀 80 年代末第一次到香港,就被商界活力吸引。那時的香港人既有願景,也有戰略。當時中國處於改革開放初期,香港有機會成為中國經濟發展的主要受益者。如今,一切都結束了。

Exclusive | Worsening US-China conflict ‘poses a great danger’ to the world, former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach says
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/32...an-stephen

‘One of the big surprises to me and most is that things have got worse under Joe Biden than they were under Donald Trump,’ Roach says
Roach calls for setting up a secretariat in a neutral jurisdiction like Switzerland for the US and China to manage their relationship
Banff
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RE: 大陸發展一直靠香港. 但時間已經改變了, 中共消滅香港. replace HK? - by Banff - 02-13-2024, 02:58 PM
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