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維基解密:李克強自爆 GDP造假, China fake GDP! - Printable Version +- Hong Kong (https://forum4hk.com) +-- Forum: 新聞區 (https://forum4hk.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: 城市論壇 (https://forum4hk.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=4) +---- Forum: 激爆新聞區 (https://forum4hk.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +---- Thread: 維基解密:李克強自爆 GDP造假, China fake GDP! (/showthread.php?tid=18341) |
維基解密:李克強自爆 GDP造假, China fake GDP! - thetis - 12-06-2010 吹噓GDP,粉飾太平,國共兩黨不謀而合? 「三角貿易」經濟命脈斷送中國,國共奸計得呈 http://www.myradio.com.hk/talks/viewthread.php?tid=970408 海外生產灌水GDP虛胖http://edmondpoon.hkreporter.com/talks/viewthread.php?tid=904790 經濟數據灌水 中國惡名昭彰http://cms.hkreporter.com/talks/viewthread.php?tid=816830 Quote:中國GDP灌水 全國數據兜不攏副總理李克強3年前坦承 〔國際新聞中心/綜合報導〕據「維基解密」(WikiLeaks)披露的美國外交電文,現任中共中央政治局常委、國務院副總理李克強,二○○七年三月擔任遼寧省委書記時,曾對當時的美國大使雷德表示,中國的國內生產毛額(GDP)都是「人造的」,並不可靠。李克強並承認遼寧貧富差距大,人民對教育、醫療、住房等基礎建設極為不滿,但最痛恨的還是官僚腐敗。 「維基解密」四日公開的編號「07BEIJING1760」機密電文「第五代政壇新星談話」顯示,可能接替溫家寶擔任下任國務院總理的李克強,當年在與雷德共進晚宴時,暢談對地方經濟數據的評估。李克強說,判斷中國的經濟不能看數字,例如二○○六年經濟成長率十二.八%,但遼寧的收入差距仍然很嚴重。他說,遼寧當年的人均GDP位列全國前十名,但其領取福利(最低生活補貼)的城鎮居民是全國最高的省份之一,而且城市居民可支配收入低於全國平均水準。相較之下,農村居民可支配收入高於全國農民的平均水準。但是,遼寧農民的收入又只有城鎮居民收入的一半。這些數字之間互相矛盾,無法理喻。 判斷中國經濟不能看數字 因此,李克強當時表示,他評估遼寧經濟,只根據用電量、鐵路貨運量和銀行放款三項指標,「李克強說,只要看這三項數字,他就可以相對精確地評估經濟成長速度,他笑著說,其他數據,特別是GDP統計數字,『僅供參考』」。 中國經濟數據、特別是省級和更低層級的資料,長期遭到分析師質疑。外商銀行一位不願具名的經濟學家表示,「中國的GDP數據、特別是地方GDP不可靠,根本不是新鮮事。」 外商:中國造假不是新鮮事 李克強也曾向政府統計人員詢問更多資訊。他去年視察中國國家統計局時,曾詢問中國GDP是否按月計算,被告知數據是按季蒐集,因為按月統計有難度時,李克強忍不住追問:「西方國家是否有按月核算的?」統計局副局長表示:「個別國家有,比較少。」 李克強現年五十六歲,北京大學經濟學博士,隸屬中國國家主席胡錦濤的「共青團」派系,曾擔任共青團中央書記處書記、河南省長、省委書記、遼寧省委書記、中央財經領導小組副組長等要職,據稱胡錦濤早就將他視為「接班人」加以培養。 這份美國大使館電文形容李克強是個「可愛且消息靈通的人」。電文指出,李克強注意到民眾對於教育、醫療、住房不滿意,不過更痛恨腐敗,而他認為,對付腐敗最有效的方法就是打造透明規範,確保監督到位,同時也要教育官員。 不過, 中國衛生部所屬「中國健康教育研究所」前所長陳秉中,卻在十二月一日世界愛滋病日前夕,發表一封致胡錦濤的公開信,舉報另一名政治局常委李長春和李克強,先後從一九九二年和二○○二年起在擔任河南省委書記期間,嚴重失職,讓河南省的「血漿經濟」高度盛行,當時正是當地賣血最嚴重的時期,導致逾十萬名農民感染愛滋病,至少一萬人死亡。他要求中央徹查河南發生的涉嫌隱瞞賣血事件,及導致愛滋病疫情蔓延的責任。 Quote:維基解密披露中國政商人脈運作 --------------------------- 維基解密:李克強自爆 GDP造假, China fake GDP! http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=18341 全球 GDP 分佈 and debt http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=11388 GDP 逾 萬 億 元 的 省 市 http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=2304 學者談中國GDP第二:産業結構落後日本40年 http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=29350 [ 本帖最後由 后太禧慈 於 2021-10-22 15:21 編輯 ] - 今晚打老虎 - 12-07-2010 未來總理上位前 向美國駐華大使私下交心 李克強:中國 GDP不可信 http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20101207&sec_id=15335&subsec_id=2756&art_id=14739395 中國‧維基泄密:只供“參考”不可信‧李克強自爆中“人造”GDP http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/185822?tid=2 中國GDP增長率可信嗎? http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1009/7/2/1/100972101_2.html?coluid=59&kindid=0&docid=100972101&mdate=0518103656 - 今晚打老虎 - 12-07-2010 未來總理上位前 向美國駐華大使私下交心 李克強:中國 GDP不可信 【維基解密風暴】金手指網站「維基解密」( WiliLeaks)不但引發美國「外交 911」,還可能觸發中國領導層風暴。網站最新公開的美國外交電報披露,中國下任總理熱門人選、現任中共中央政治局常委、國務院副總理李克強,曾肆無忌憚地向美國駐華大使指,中國國內生產總值( GDP)數字是「人為的,不可信」。他又承認,官員貪污激起民眾的最大的憤懣。 這份機密電報於 2007年 3月 15日發出,由時任美國駐華大使雷德( Clark Randt)撰寫,內容是他跟時任遼寧省委書記李克強共晉晚餐的對話內容。 以非正式途徑聽民意 兩人談到許多問題,在經濟問題上,李克強更直指,中國 GDP數字是「人為的,不可信」。他臉帶微笑說,若要準確評估遼寧的經濟增長速度,他只看三項數據,即電力使用量、火車貨運量、銀行放貸數字。至於其他數據,尤其是 GDP數字,「只是參考而已」。他又透露自己會從多個正式和非正式途徑聽取民意,包括透過朋友收集他無法取得的資料。 李克強是胡錦濤的愛將,可望於 2013年繼承溫家寶的總理一職。中國外交部新聞官拒絕評論維基解密公開的文件,只重申外交部上周的聲明指,希望美國「妥善處理」相關事宜。美國駐華大使館也未有回應。 維基解密將中國官員私下言論曝光,令中國官場人人自危,恐怕言論被指洩露國家機密,遭秋後算賬。但就李克強言論,中國一間外資銀行的經濟分析師指出,「中國 GDP數字靠不住,不是甚麼新鮮事」,至於他側重電力、鐵路貨運、銀行放貸數字則「很有趣」,因為在地方層面揑造這些數字的驅動力較少。 民眾最憤怒是官貪污 李克強於 2007年 10月晉身中央政治局,他對數據問題顯得很有興趣,去年參觀國家統計局時,曾問職員中國是否根據每月數據計算 GDP。職員答數據是按季收集的,若要每月計算很困難。李克強又問:「西方國家會按月計算嗎?」李克強 10月出席「世界統計日」活動時,又強調「統計工作要致力於提供真實可靠完整的統計訊息,提高統計的公眾認知度和信任度。」 雷德在電報中形容,李克強有領袖魅力、消息靈通、有幽默感、有自信。他向雷德指出,內地民眾對教育、醫療和房屋問題都有不滿,但最憤怒的是官員貪污。而打擊貪污最有力的方法,是制訂具透明度的規則,並確保有足夠監察和教育官員,例如帶他們參觀監獄。李克強透露自己曾遊歷美國,很喜歡俄克拉荷馬州。 英國《衞報》/路透社 http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20101207&sec_id=15335&subsec_id=2756&art_id=14739395 中國人站起來系列-李克強:中國 GDP不可信 - samsam2010 - 12-07-2010 未來總理上位前 向美國駐華大使私下交心 李克強:中國 GDP不可信 2010年12月07日 http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20101207&sec_id=15335&subsec_id=2756&art_id=14739395 [img=117,196]http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com//images/apple-photos/apple/20101207/small/07wc2pnewn.jpg[/img] 外界預料李克強將於 2013年接溫家寶棒出任國務院總理。 資料圖片 【維基解密風暴】金手指網站「維基解密」(WiliLeaks)不但引發美國「外交911」,還可能觸發中國領導層風暴。網站最新公開的美國外交電報披露,中國下任總理熱門人選、現任中共中央政治局常委、國務院副總理李克強,曾肆無忌憚地向美國駐華大使指,中國國內生產總值(GDP)數字是「人為的,不可信」。他又承認,官員貪污激起民眾的最大的憤懣。 這份機密電報於 2007年 3月 15日發出,由時任美國駐華大使雷德( Clark Randt)撰寫,內容是他跟時任遼寧省委書記李克強共晉晚餐的對話內容。 以非正式途徑聽民意 ![]() 李克強向雷德透露內地民眾不滿房屋問題。 互聯網 兩人談到許多問題,在經濟問題上,李克強更直指,中國GDP數字是「人為的,不可信」。他臉帶微笑說,若要準確評估遼寧的經濟增長速度,他只看三項數據,即電力使用量、火車貨運量、銀行放貸數字。至於其他數據,尤其是GDP數字,「只是參考而已」。他又透露自己會從多個正式和非正式途徑聽取民意,包括透過朋友收集他無法取得的資料。 李克強是胡錦濤的愛將,可望於 2013年繼承溫家寶的總理一職。中國外交部新聞官拒絕評論維基解密公開的文件,只重申外交部上周的聲明指,希望美國「妥善處理」相關事宜。美國駐華大使館也未有回應。 維基解密將中國官員私下言論曝光,令中國官場人人自危,恐怕言論被指洩露國家機密,遭秋後算賬。但就李克強言論,中國一間外資銀行的經濟分析師指出,「中國GDP數字靠不住,不是甚麼新鮮事」,至於他側重電力、鐵路貨運、銀行放貸數字則「很有趣」,因為在地方層面揑造這些數字的驅動力較少。 民眾最憤怒是官貪污 ![]() 中國近年透過北京奧運等大型國際活動展示盛世國力,但李克強私下指中國 GDP數字不足信。 路透社資料圖片 李克強於 2007年10月晉身中央政治局,他對數據問題顯得很有興趣,去年參觀國家統計局時,曾問職員中國是否根據每月數據計算GDP。職員答數據是按季收集的,若要每月計算很困難。李克強又問:「西方國家會按月計算嗎?」李克強10月出席「世界統計日」活動時,又強調「統計工作要致力於提供真實可靠完整的統計訊息,提高統計的公眾認知度和信任度。」 雷德在電報中形容,李克強有領袖魅力、消息靈通、有幽默感、有自信。他向雷德指出,內地民眾對教育、醫療和房屋問題都有不滿,但最憤怒的是官員貪污。而打擊貪污最有力的方法,是制訂具透明度的規則,並確保有足夠監察和教育官員,例如帶他們參觀監獄。李克強透露自己曾遊歷美國,很喜歡俄克拉荷馬州。 英國《衞報》/路透社 ![]() - thetis - 12-29-2010 亞洲四小虎撕破竹幕惡龍GDP增幅造假的真面目 中國距世界第三大經濟體日本還很遠 http://finance.sina.com/bg/economy/ausdaily/20100817/1812120762.html 中國經濟超越日本 該憂慮的是中國 新頭殼newtalk 2010.08.21 洪聖斐/編譯報導 http://203.69.66.115/news_read.php?oid=7413 摩根大通下修中國GDP預測 中央社 (2010-08-20 18:10) http://news.sina.com.tw/article/20100820/3668158.html 拼政績 中國地方GDP數據摻水 http://news.sina.com.tw/article/20100802/3581816.html 出口趨緩 日本經濟成長率僅0.4% http://news.pts.org.tw/detail.php?NEENO=156686 Quote:世銀指出中國的人均所得卻還是只有美國的的四分之一,也就是和馬來西亞或是拉丁美洲國家差不多的收入。印度經濟高速增長 將超越中國 中央社 (2010-08-16 19:50) http://news.sina.com.tw/article/20100816/3642547.html 中國躍居世界第二大經濟體 但依舊未脫貧窮 2010/08/17 02:45 編譯郭照青 綜合外電 http://news.cts.com.tw/action/print.php?newsid=201008170541433 中國GDP超日 人均GDP卻不及美日1成 http://news.rti.org.tw/index_friendlyPrint.aspx?nid=254553 地方灌水 中央裝傻/中國GDP增幅造假 http://www.libertytimes.com/2010/new/jul/30/today-e9.htm Quote:〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕中國公布上半年GDP成長率十一.一%,但已公布上半年GDP成長率的二十八個省市自治區中,僅新疆維吾爾自治區GDP成長率低於十一.一%,其他均超過此數據,地方數據再度和中央數據兜不攏。 - FriedrichEngels - 03-04-2014 上任首份工作報告 破20年傳統 李克強避提GDP指標 http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20140305/18646107 ![]() - FriedrichEngels - 03-04-2014 上任首份工作報告 破20年傳統 李克強避提GDP指標 http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20140305/18646107 ![]() - fong - 05-11-2014 李光耀:即使中國GDP超過美國 也無法恢復漢朝時地位 http://finance.ifeng.com/news/pic/detail_2011_03/11/5101684_0.shtml#locate - EL34 - 06-10-2018 China Quietly Releases 2017 Provincial GDP Figures https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/02/12/china-quietly-releases-2017-provincial-gdp-figures/#3460117520dc China's National Bureau of Statistics quietly released provincial GDP figures on Monday. Quietly, because the data don't quite add up. As in previous years, the national growth rate calculated by adding up all of the provincial figures -- 8.1% -- is higher than the actually reported national growth rate of 6.9%. That longstanding problem may be on the way out. China's provinces have been told to quit chasing inflated targets, and several have in fact reduced their growth targets for 2018. Publicly acknowledged fabrications of GDP statistics in Inner Mongolia and Tianjin seem to have been reflected in their 2017 statistics. Like a company writing down past accounting irregularities, Inner Mongolia posted a 15.7% decline in GDP last year. Tianjin, a booming advanced manufacturing hub, reported growth of just 1.4%, presumably to adjust for prior years' misreporting. It will be interesting to see if both provinces return to normal in 2018. ![]() The rest of the country's figures seem broadly reasonable. Though China's provincial growth figures may be somewhat inflated, and some of them are seriously unreliable, most of them probably do reflect genuine differences in growth rates across regions. Take off a point or two across the board, but it still makes sense to compare provinces against each other. Two provinces reported growth rates in excess of 12%: northern China's Shanxi province and southwest China's Guangxi province. Both are among China's poorest and most rural provinces, and both desperately need the growth. Even after posting those impressive figures, they are still hovering at around $6,500 GDP per capita. Eleven other provinces reported growth rates above 10%, including most of China's rich eastern coastal provinces. China's largest province, southeastern Guangdong, reported 10.2% growth to bring its GDP per capita to nearly $13,000. That's still far below the level of neighboring Hong Kong ($44,000), but parts of Guangdong are catching up fast. ![]() However the poor Dongbei region, northeast of Beijing on the border with Russia and North Korea, is falling further behind. While the so-called Jing-Jin-Ji region surrounding the nation's capital surges ahead, the neighboring heavy industrial provinces of the Dongbei continue to struggle with difficult industrial restructuring. The Dongbei's difficulties reflect the most striking thing about China's provincial GDP map: the huge gap between the eastern coastal provinces and the rest of the country. Shanghai and Beijing, with around $20,000 per capita GDP, are starting to approach the levels of neighbors like Taiwan ($24,000) and South Korea ($30,000). Per capita output in the Dongbei is less than half that level. North China (Huabei) and northwest China (Xibei) are doing even worse. Rural Gansu province in the heart of the Xibei has a GDP per capita less then one-fifth that of Beijing. And with an annual growth rate of less than 5%, it won't be catching up anytime soon. ![]() China's massive regional disparities -- more than twice as large as those between U.S. states -- call out for central government policies to address them. In some ways China is working hard to knit the country more closely together, for example with its world-class high speed rail network. In other ways, China's rich eastern cities are pulling up the ladder behind them, as they declare themselves "full" and tell rural migrants to move elsewhere. As GDP growth slows throughout China, it will become more and more difficult for people to enjoy President Xi Jinping's Chinese dream of a "moderately prosperous society." Many of those lucky enough to hold legal residency in China's eastern provinces are already living the Chinese dream, or soon will be. Those unlucky (hundreds of) millions who live in the north and west may have much longer to wait. - EL34 - 06-10-2018 China Quietly Releases 2017 Provincial GDP Figures https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/02/12/china-quietly-releases-2017-provincial-gdp-figures/#3460117520dc China's National Bureau of Statistics quietly released provincial GDP figures on Monday. Quietly, because the data don't quite add up. As in previous years, the national growth rate calculated by adding up all of the provincial figures -- 8.1% -- is higher than the actually reported national growth rate of 6.9%. That longstanding problem may be on the way out. China's provinces have been told to quit chasing inflated targets, and several have in fact reduced their growth targets for 2018. Publicly acknowledged fabrications of GDP statistics in Inner Mongolia and Tianjin seem to have been reflected in their 2017 statistics. Like a company writing down past accounting irregularities, Inner Mongolia posted a 15.7% decline in GDP last year. Tianjin, a booming advanced manufacturing hub, reported growth of just 1.4%, presumably to adjust for prior years' misreporting. It will be interesting to see if both provinces return to normal in 2018. ![]() The rest of the country's figures seem broadly reasonable. Though China's provincial growth figures may be somewhat inflated, and some of them are seriously unreliable, most of them probably do reflect genuine differences in growth rates across regions. Take off a point or two across the board, but it still makes sense to compare provinces against each other. Two provinces reported growth rates in excess of 12%: northern China's Shanxi province and southwest China's Guangxi province. Both are among China's poorest and most rural provinces, and both desperately need the growth. Even after posting those impressive figures, they are still hovering at around $6,500 GDP per capita. Eleven other provinces reported growth rates above 10%, including most of China's rich eastern coastal provinces. China's largest province, southeastern Guangdong, reported 10.2% growth to bring its GDP per capita to nearly $13,000. That's still far below the level of neighboring Hong Kong ($44,000), but parts of Guangdong are catching up fast. ![]() However the poor Dongbei region, northeast of Beijing on the border with Russia and North Korea, is falling further behind. While the so-called Jing-Jin-Ji region surrounding the nation's capital surges ahead, the neighboring heavy industrial provinces of the Dongbei continue to struggle with difficult industrial restructuring. The Dongbei's difficulties reflect the most striking thing about China's provincial GDP map: the huge gap between the eastern coastal provinces and the rest of the country. Shanghai and Beijing, with around $20,000 per capita GDP, are starting to approach the levels of neighbors like Taiwan ($24,000) and South Korea ($30,000). Per capita output in the Dongbei is less than half that level. North China (Huabei) and northwest China (Xibei) are doing even worse. Rural Gansu province in the heart of the Xibei has a GDP per capita less then one-fifth that of Beijing. And with an annual growth rate of less than 5%, it won't be catching up anytime soon. ![]() China's massive regional disparities -- more than twice as large as those between U.S. states -- call out for central government policies to address them. In some ways China is working hard to knit the country more closely together, for example with its world-class high speed rail network. In other ways, China's rich eastern cities are pulling up the ladder behind them, as they declare themselves "full" and tell rural migrants to move elsewhere. As GDP growth slows throughout China, it will become more and more difficult for people to enjoy President Xi Jinping's Chinese dream of a "moderately prosperous society." Many of those lucky enough to hold legal residency in China's eastern provinces are already living the Chinese dream, or soon will be. Those unlucky (hundreds of) millions who live in the north and west may have much longer to wait. |